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5. Excluding Iceland, Luxembourg and Mexico. 1. 12 a) The “constant” projections assume that participation rates by five-year age groups and gender remain constant at their 2000 levels. The “declining” projections also assume constant participation rates up to and including the age group 45-49 but for the older age groups they are projected to decline such that by 2030 they are at the same level as the OECD average of these rates in 2000. The “maximum” projections assume that participation rates by age and gender converge by 2030 to the corresponding maximum rate observed across OECD member countries in 2000 and remain constant thereafter.
The same assumption is also made in each variant that Japan’s low rate of net migration, historically, will continue into the future. 2. Demographic dependency ratios, 2000-2050 Percentages 120 80 a B. Total dependency ratiob A. Old age dependency ratio Japan 110 70 Korea Czech Rep. Japan 100 60 Korea Germany Japan 50 Mexico 90 OECD Sweden Sweden Germany 40 30 20 Sweden Japan Germany US OECD Korea US Sweden Japan 80 US Turkey OECD US OECD Germany 70 Sweden US OECD 60 Japan Germany Korea US OECD Germany Sweden Turkey Korea Turkey Turkey 10 0 1975 Korea Mexico 2000 50 2025 2050 40 1975 2000 2025 2050 a) Ratio of the population aged 65 and over to the population aged 20-64.
Consequently, Japan’s labour force is also likely to contract substantially over the course of the next half-century. Population projections: low, medium and high variantsa Millions 130 125 120 115 Historical Low Medium High 110 105 100 95 90 85 19 50 19 55 19 60 19 65 19 70 19 75 19 80 19 85 19 90 19 95 20 00 20 05 20 10 20 15 20 20 20 25 20 30 20 35 20 40 20 45 20 50 80 a) The three variants differ in their assumptions about future fertility rates. Source: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, Population Projection for Japan: 2001-2050.